Content
and objectives The course provides an
introduction to empirical research on long-run economic growth. After a short
overview, selected research topics are discussed together with standard empirical
methods. The econometric software package Stata is used to replicate core results
of the empirical growth literature. By providing hands-on experience with alternative
estimation methods and with Stata, the course aims to prepare students for their
own empirical research, not only on long-run economic growth. Essential
background reading Baum, Christopher F. (2006). An Introduction to Modern
Econometrics Using Stata. Stata Press: College
Station, Texas. Durlauf, Steven N., Paul A. Johnson,
Jonathan R. W. Temple.
(2004). Growth econometrics. In: P. Aghion and S. Durlauf
(eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol.
1A. North-Holland: Amsterdam,
pp. 555-677. Helpman, Elhanan (2004). The Mystery of Economic
Growth. The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press: Cambridge, MA. Jones, Charles I. (2002). Introduction to Economic Growth.
2nd ed. W. W. Norton & Company: New York. Kennedy, Peter E. (2002). Sinning in the
basement: What are the rules? The Ten Commandments of applied econometrics.
Journal of Economic Surveys 16(4): 569-589. McCloskey, Deirdre N., Stephen T. Ziliak
(1996). The standard error of regressions. Journal of Economic Literature
34(1): 97-114. Stanley, T. D., Chris Doucouliagos, Stephen
B. Jarrell (2008). Meta-regression analysis as the socio-economics of economic
research. Journal of Socio-Economics 37: 276-292. Temple, Jonathan (2003). The
long-run implications of growth theories. Journal of Economic Surveys 17:
497-510.
Assessment Lectures are interactive. Students
are expected to be able to discuss in class the core arguments of the papers
listed for each lecture. Moreover, students are expected to submit each week a one-page summary
of selected papers (300 words maximum) or an empirical exercise with Stata. The course is completed with a written exam (closed book). Participation
in the exam depends on the successful completion of a minimum of six summaries
of selected papers and six Stata exercises. The assigned summaries and Stata
exercises will be discussed in class and graded. Grading requires attendance in
class.
Organizational
details Lecture notes, selected papers,
some datasets, and some Stata code will be provided for download. Students who have registered for
the course (in STiNE) are requested to send an email to
gundlach(at)giga-hamburg.de to get access to the lecture materials and to
Stata on a UHH server via VPN (early registration recommended).
Lecture
plan (preliminary)
1. Ideas about growth, data, and
getting started with Stata Assignments: Generate
a line graph with Stata.
Read
Jones (2002).
2. The basic structure of
(empirical) growth models Jones (2002). Introduction to Economic Growth. 2nd
ed. W. W. Norton & Company: New
York. Chaps. 2-6, 8. Assignments: Generate
a scatter graph with Stata.
Summary
of Mankiw et al. (1992), sections I-II.
3. Factor accumulation and growth Mankiw, N. Gregory,
David Romer, David N. Weil (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic
growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2): 408-437. Assignments:
OLS regressions.
Summary
of Klenow and Rodriguez-Clare
(1997).
4. Productivity differences and
development accounting Hall, Robert E.,
Charles I. Jones (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per
worker than others? Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(1): 83-116.
Klenow, Peter J., Andrés Rodriguez-Clare (1997). The neoclassical
revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far?. NBER Macroeconomics Annual
12: 73-102. Assignments: Non-parametric estimation.
Summary of Islam (1995).
5. Convergence Barro, Robert J., Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992), Convergence. Journal of
Political Economy 100: 223-251.
Islam, Nazrul
(1995). Growth empirics: A panel data approach. The Quarterly Journal of
Economics, 110(4): 1127–1170.
Mankiw, N. Gregory,
David Romer, David N. Weil (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic
growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(2): 408-437, section III. Assignments: Fixed-effects estimation.
Summary of Levine and Renelt (1992).
6. Robustness of growth
regressions Levine, Ross, David
Renelt (1992). A sensivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions.
American Economic Review 82(4): 942-963.
Sala-i-Martin,
Xavier (1997). I just ran two million regressions. American Economic Review
87(2): 178-183.
Sala-i-Martin,
Xavier (1997). I just ran four million regressions. NBER Working Paper, 6252,
Cambridge MA, November. Assignments:
Extreme bounds
analysis.
Summary of Hauk and Wacziarg (2009).
7. Monte
Carlo simulations of growth regressions Hauk, William R.,
Romain Wacziarg (2009). A Monte Carlo study of
growth regressions. Journal of Economic Growth 14: 103-147. Assignments: Alternative panel
estimators.
Summary of Heckman and Klenow (1997), section
1.
8. Human capital and growth Carstensen, Kai, Erich Gundlach, Susanne Hartmann (2009). The augmented Solow
model with Mincerian schooling and externalities. German Economic Review 10(4):
448-463.
Hanushek, Eric A.,
Dennis D. Kimko (2000). Schooling, labor force quality, and the growth of
nations. American Economic Review 90(5): 1184-1208.
Heckman, James J.,
Peter J. Klenow (1997). Human Capital Policy. University of Chicago
(mimeo). Assignments:
Restricted OLS
regressions.
Summary of Brock and Taylor (2010).
9. Natural resources and growth Brock,
William A., M. Scott Taylor (2010). The green Solow model. Journal of Economic
Growth 15(2): 127-153.
Jones (2002), Introduction to Economic Growth. 2nd
ed. W. W. Norton & Company: New
York. Chap. 9. Assignments:
OLS regressions.
Summary of Acemoglu et al. (2001).
10. Institutions, geography, and
growth Acemoglu,
Daron,
Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson (2001). The colonial origins of comparative
development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review 91(5): 1369-1401.
Albouy, David
(2008). The colonial origins of comparative development: An investigation of
the settler mortality data. NBER Working Paper, 14130, June. Cambridge, MA
(forthcoming AER).
Hall, Robert E.,
Charles I. Jones (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per
worker than others? Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(1): 83-116. Assignments:
IV regressions.
Summary of Weil (2007).
11. Health and growth Carstensen,
Kai, Erich Gundlach (2006). The primacy of institutions reconsidered: Direct
income effects of malaria prevalence. World Bank Economic Review 20: 309-339.
Diamond, Jared
(1999). Guns, Germs, and Steel. The Fates of Human Societies. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Weil, David N. (2007).
Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth. Quarterly Journal of
Economics 122(3):1265-1306. Assignments:
IV regressions;
non-parametric estimation.
Summary of Doucouliagos and Paldam (2008).
12. Aid and growth Doucouliagos, Hristos, Martin Paldam (2011).
The robust result in meta-analysis of aid effectiveness. A response to Mekasha
and Tarp. Mimeo, Aarhus and Melbourne, December.
Doucouliagos, Hristos, Martin Paldam (2010).
Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta study. Journal of International
Development 22: 391-410.
Doucouliagos, Hristos,
Martin Paldam (2008). Aid effectiveness on growth: A meta study. European Journal of Political Economy24: 1-24.
Easterly, William
(1999). The ghost of financing gap: Testing the growth model of the international
financial institutions. Journal of Development Economics 60(2): 423-438.
Mekasha, Tseday
Jemaneh, Finn Tarp (2011). Aid and growth. What meta-analysis reveals.
UNU-WIDER Working Paper, 2011/22, April.
Rajan, Raghuram G.,
Arvind Subramanian (2008). Aid and growth: What does the cross-country evidence
really show? Review of Economics and Statistics 90(4): 643-665. Assignments:
Meta regression
analysis.
Summary of Acemoglu et al (2008).
13. Democracy and growth Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson, Pierre Yared (2008). Income and
democracy. American Economic Review 98(3): 808-42.
Gundlach, Erich, Martin Paldam (2009). A farewell to critical junctures:
Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy. European Journal of
Political Economy 25(3): 340–354. Assignments:
Alternative
panel estimators; IV regressions.
Summary of Miguel et al. (2004).
14. Conflict and growth Ciccone, Antonio
(2011). Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment. American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics 3(October): 215-227.
Miguel, Edward,
Shanker Satyanath (2011). Re-examining economic shocks and civil conflict.
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 3(October): 228-232.
Miguel, Edward,
Shanker Satyanath, Ernest Sergenti (2004). Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict:
An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy 112(4): 725–753. Assignment:
IV regressions;
panel estimators.
Vorlesung Mo 14-16, Wiwi A
Beginn: 17. Oktober 2011
Übung
(Karsten Mau)
Mi 14-15, Wiwi A Beginn: 19.
Oktober 2011
Inhalt Die Vorlesung bietet eine Übersicht zu den Grundlagen der
Wachstumstheorie und orientiert sich dabei weitgehend an den Lehrbüchern:
Jones, Charles I. (2002). Introduction to Economic Growth. 2nd ed. New York: W. W. Norton. Weil, David (2009). Economic
Growth. 2nd ed. Prentice Hall.
Das
Lehrbuch von Jones bietet einen ausgezeichneten Einstieg in die formale
Diskussion alternativer Wachstumsmodelle. Das Lehrbuch von Weil bietet
demgegenüber eine breitere Einführung in das Thema und zahlreiche Verweise zur
empirischen Forschung. Für ein
Verständnis der Vorlesung ist ein intensives Studium der angegebenen Lehrbücher
unbedingt erforderlich. Die in der Vorlesung präsentierten PPT-Folien sowie ausgewählte
Begleitmaterialien werden zum Download zur Verfügung gestellt. Einzelheiten
dazu werden in der Vorlesung bekannt gegeben. In der Übung werden ausgewählte
Fragen des in der Vorlesung behandelten Stoffs besprochen. Die Veranstaltung
wird mit einer Klausur abgeschlossen.
Literatur zum Einstieg in das Thema Diamond, Jared (1999). Guns,
Germs, and Steel. The Fates of Human Societies. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. Easterly, William (2001). The Elusive Quest for Growth. Economist’s Adventures and Misadventures
in the Tropics. MIT Press, Cambridge
MA. Helpman, Elhanan (2004). The
Mystery of Economic Growth. Cambridge MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University
Press. Mann,
Charles C. (2005). 1491. New Revelations of the Americas
Before Columbus.
New York:
Alfred A. Kopf. Warsh, David (2006). Knowledge and
the Wealth of Nations. A Story of Economic Discovery. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
Vorläufige
Gliederung 1. Daten, Fakten und
Konzepte 2. Wachstumstheorie vor Solow 3. Das Solow-Modell 4. Das Solow Modell mit
Humankapital 5. Faktorakkumulation vs.
Technologie 6. Konvergenz im
neoklassischen Wachstumsmodell 7. Die Akkumulation von Wissen 8. Das Romer-Modell 9. Ein Basismodell des halb-endogenen Wachstums 10. Alternative endogene Wachstumsmodelle 11. Institutionen und Wachstum 12. Natürliche Ressourcen und Wachstum 13. Wachstum in offenen Volkswirtschaften 14. Wachstum und Einkommensverteilung
